Predicting the best team in the NL Central

The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.

Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation, but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.

Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79

The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.

That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.

While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.

Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8

The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.

In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounce-back from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.

In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.

Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.

Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7

A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a teamwide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.

But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.

They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.

Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73

Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.

They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.

With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.

The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounce-back candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.

Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7

Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The teamwide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.

Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.

Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounce-back performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.

Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?