NCAA men’s lacrosse quarterfinal betting picks: College lacrosse best bets for Syracuse vs. Denver for Sun. 5/19

No. 4 Syracuse vs. No. 5 Denver

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver’s offense took advantage of a 33rd-ranked Michigan defense that had struggled defending pick play and transition all season. As a result, the Pioneers posted a season-high adjusted offensive efficiency of 43.6% according to Lacrosse Reference.

The only other times they had gone over 40% was against a 48th-ranked Cornell defense and 70th-ranked St. John’s. Yet, against top 20 defenses, Denver has often fared much worse with an average adjusted offensive efficiency of 30.29%. They’ll face a Syracuse defense that ranks 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency and has dealt with ACC offenses with a lot more weapons than Denver currently has.

Now, Denver’s defense ranks 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency and their ability to convert caused turnovers into transition offense is something Syracuse will have to contend with. Yet, I’m not sure the Pios will want to turn this game into a track meet early on. Syracuse loves to score in transition as well and has the offense to outmatch Denver in a run and gun game.

The Orange are also the most efficient offense this season during competitive situations and we’ve seen them score 12+ goals against defenses better than Denver (Notre Dame, Duke, Maryland and Johns Hopkins). Once Michigan's offense got going last weekend, we actually saw them exploit the holes in this aggressive Denver defense. Syracuse should have no problem finding even more success with their large cast of contributors.

Additionally, Denver won’t be able to rely on the large possession advantage they've enjoyed most of the regular season. While the Alec Stathakis-led Denver faceoff unit ranks fourth in adjusted faceoff efficiency, Syracuse’s holds the top-ranked adjusted faceoff efficiency mark. Denver will likely need to capitalize on just as many possessions as last weekend and that will be a tall task against the Will Mark-led Orange defense.

While this game could potentially be competitive initially, I expect Syracuse to run away with it by game’s end. Bet Syracuse to win and cover the -2.5 at -115 on DraftKings.

Pick: Syracuse -2.5